CAVA GROUP, INC. (CAVA) Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

Q3 2025 delivered solid top-line growth and resilient unit economics: revenue up 20% YoY to $292.2M, restaurant-level margin 24.6%, and Adjusted EBITDA $40.0M; comps moderated to 1.9% amid macro headwinds and lapping tough prior-year results .
Versus Wall Street consensus, CAVA slightly beat revenue, modestly missed EPS, and was roughly in-line on Adjusted EBITDA: revenue $292.238M vs $291.950M*, EPS $0.12 vs $0.129*, Adjusted EBITDA $40.042M vs $40.544M* (small miss) .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Guidance was lowered: same-restaurant sales (SSS) to 3–4% (from 4–6%), restaurant-level margin to 24.4–24.8% (from 24.8–25.2%), pre-opening costs raised to $18–19M, and Adjusted EBITDA to $148–152M (from $152–159M); net new openings unchanged at 68–70 .
Near-term stock catalysts: guidance cut and macro commentary (consumer pressures, DMV shutdown) on one hand, balanced by structural strength (AUVs ≈ $2.9M, new unit productivity >100%), technology rollouts (KDS to 350 by YE), and menu pipeline (salmon broader roll-out targeted for spring 2026) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Revenue +20% YoY to $292.2M; Adjusted EBITDA +19.6% YoY to $40.0M; continued market share gains and >100% new unit productivity, with the 2025 cohort trending above $3M AUV .
Strategic initiatives: kitchen display system (KDS) rollout to ≥350 locations by YE and TurboChef ovens chainwide to improve accuracy, speed, and food quality .
Product pipeline executing: chicken shawarma launched (performed to test expectations), salmon test showing encouraging results with a planned broader roll-out in late spring 2026; pita chip innovation driving engagement .

What Went Wrong

Comps moderated to 1.9% as macro headwinds intensified and CAVA lapped a very strong prior-year comp; restaurant-level margin declined 100 bps YoY to 24.6% (higher third-party delivery mix, insurance, tariffs, shawarma, wage investments) .
Guidance lowered: SSS, restaurant-level margin, Adjusted EBITDA trimmed; pre-opening costs raised (more units under construction and higher per-unit opening costs) .
Other operating expenses (repairs & maintenance) remained elevated; management expects continuation into Q4 while optimizing equipment and maintaining physical integrity of restaurants .

Financial Results

Metric	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$243.817	$280.615	$292.238
Net Income ($USD Millions)	$17.966	$18.368	$14.747
Diluted EPS ($USD)	$0.15	$0.16	$0.12
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$33.479	$42.104	$40.042
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)	13.7%	15.0%	13.7%
Restaurant-Level Profit Margin (%)	25.6%	26.3%	24.6%
Same Restaurant Sales Growth (%)	18.1%	2.1%	1.9%

Segment Breakdown (CAVA)	Q3 2024	Q3 2025
CAVA Segment Revenue ($USD Millions)	$241.499	$289.787
CAVA Restaurant-Level Profit ($USD Millions)	$61.819	$71.165
CAVA Restaurant-Level Profit Margin (%)	25.6%	24.6%

KPIs	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
CAVA Same Restaurant Sales Growth (%)	18.1%	2.1%	1.9%
CAVA AUV ($USD Millions)	$2.784	$2.939	$2.935
Digital Revenue Mix (%)	35.8%	37.3%	37.6%
Net New CAVA Restaurant Openings	11	16	17
CAVA Restaurants (End of Period)	352	398	415
CAVA Restaurant Operating Weeks	4,159	4,659	4,881

Q3 2025 Actual vs Consensus	Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)	Actual: $292.238 ; Consensus: $291.950*
Diluted EPS ($USD)	Actual: $0.12 ; Consensus: $0.129*
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	Actual: $40.042 ; Consensus: $40.544*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance (Aug 12, 2025)	Current Guidance (Nov 4, 2025)	Change
Net New CAVA Restaurant Openings	FY 2025	68–70	68–70	Maintained
CAVA Same Restaurant Sales Growth (%)	FY 2025	4.0–6.0	3.0–4.0	Lowered
CAVA Restaurant-Level Profit Margin (%)	FY 2025	24.8–25.2	24.4–24.8	Lowered
Pre-opening Costs ($USD Millions)	FY 2025	$15.5–$16.5	$18.0–$19.0	Raised
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	FY 2025	$152–$159	$148–$152	Lowered
Effective Tax Rate (%)	FY 2025	12–15 (Q2 call)	10–12 (Q3 call)	Lowered

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1–Q2 2025)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
Technology/KDS/TurboChef	KDS targeted to 250; AI video tech in test; TurboChef rollout; objective to improve accuracy/throughput	KDS on track for ≥350 by YE (200+ live); TurboChef in all restaurants; improved satisfaction via accuracy/status notifications	Expanding deployment and impact
Menu innovation (chicken shawarma, salmon, pita chips)	Shawarma tests in Dallas/Florida; pita chips promotions; new spicy offerings	Shawarma launched and performed to test; salmon test encouraging with late spring 2026 launch target; cinnamon-sugar pita chips	Pipeline progressing; broader launch planning
Supply chain/tariffs	Basket diversification and contracted costs; steak-related input cost impact; tariff monitoring	Margin pressure from tariffs and shawarma; macro moderation; repairs & maintenance elevated	Input costs a headwind; R&M optimization in progress
Macro/consumer	Q2 deceleration; reacceleration exiting Q2; cautious three-year stack outlook	Further moderation into Q4; macro pressures, DMV shutdown softness noted	Macro headwinds intensify
Loyalty/marketing	Rewards reimagined traction; tiered structure planned; low marketing spend but testing media mix	Tiered status (Sea/Sand/Sun) live; industry-first status matching; testing upper-funnel collaborations	Loyalty scaling; marketing levers increasing
Operations & labor (AGM)	Labor deployment model improvements; AGM role testing	“Flavor Your Future” and AGM rollout to deepen leadership; modest labor impact expected	Investment in people/leadership

Management Commentary

CEO (Brett Schulman): “Same restaurant sales grew 1.9%... We opened 17 net new restaurants and grew revenue by 20.0%. Despite lapping strong prior-year results and navigating macroeconomic headwinds, the underlying strength of our model is evident. New restaurant productivity remains above 100%, with our 2025 cohort trending above $3 million in average unit volumes” .
CFO (Tricia Tolivar): “Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $40 million, a 19.6% increase versus the third quarter of 2024… Our guidance reflects dynamics we experienced in the third quarter and the anticipated impacts of seasonality on margins” .
CEO on technology: “Restaurants with the new KDS are experiencing higher guest satisfaction scores driven by improved visual accuracy and proactive guest order status notification capabilities… All CAVA restaurants are now equipped with a TurboChef oven” .
CEO on menu: “We introduced Chicken Shawarma… The launch performed to our market test expectations… Salmon market test has shown encouraging results… we plan to expand salmon more broadly across our restaurants in late spring of 2026” .

Q&A Highlights

Macro and comps: Management attributed Q3 comp moderation to macro headwinds and tough lapping; two-year stack accelerated by 350 bps to 20% .
Salmon test and operations: Salmon drives incremental occasions, broad appeal; easy cook procedure using TurboChef; prospective late spring 2026 launch if trends persist .
Marketing levers: Testing upper-funnel activity as scale increases; paid remains efficient; collaborations possible in 2026 .
AGM program and labor: AGM role elevates leadership presence across shifts; modest labor impact expected in 2026 .
Regional/macro note: DMV region showing some softness as paychecks to government workers ceased amid shutdown; not acute currently .
R&M expense: Higher repair & maintenance pressured margins; guidance assumes continuation into Q4 while optimizing equipment .

Estimates Context

Q3 2025 actuals vs S&P Global consensus:
- Revenue: $292.238M actual vs $291.950M estimate (slight beat)* .
- EPS: $0.12 actual vs $0.129 estimate (modest miss)* .
- Adjusted EBITDA: $40.042M actual vs $40.544M estimate (small miss)* .
  Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Implications: Modest EPS/EBITDA misses against consensus, coupled with guidance cuts (SSS, margin, Adjusted EBITDA), likely warrant downward estimate revisions for FY 2025; however, structural strength (AUVs, new unit productivity >100%) and menu/tech pipeline support medium-term trajectory .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Guidance reset for FY 2025 (SSS 3–4%, RLM 24.4–24.8%, Adjusted EBITDA $148–152M) reflects macro moderation and higher opening/R&M costs; focus near-term on margin discipline and Opex optimization .
Unit economics remain robust: restaurant-level margin 24.6% and >100% new unit productivity with 2025 cohort AUV >$3M underpinning multi-year growth to at least 1,000 restaurants by 2032 .
Technology execution is scaling (KDS to ≥350 by YE; TurboChef chainwide) to improve accuracy, speed, and guest satisfaction—key to unlocking digital throughput and reducing variability .
Menu innovation pipeline is a medium-term traffic driver: chicken shawarma performing; salmon broader roll-out targeted for late spring 2026; pita chip platform sustains engagement .
Loyalty program upgrades (Sea/Sand/Sun tiers, status matching) expand first-party engagement, enabling targeted promotions over heavy discounting, supporting value narrative without margin dilution .
Watch macro sensitivity and regional dynamics (DMV shutdown effect) and repairs & maintenance trajectory; management is actively optimizing and investing in execution and leadership (AGM program) .
Near-term trade setup: modest EPS/EBITDA consensus misses and lowered guidance can weigh on sentiment; subsequent quarters’ comp/margin stabilization and evidence of tech/menu benefits are likely key re-rating catalysts .

Appendices

Other Relevant Q3 Press Releases

Loyalty status matching and tiered benefits (Sea/Sand/Sun) launched Oct 2025 .
Miami Brickell opening and ongoing South Florida expansion—reinforces geographic growth and demand .
Q3 earnings timing announcement (Nov 4, 2025) .

Prior Quarter References (Trend Analysis)

Q2 2025: Revenue $280.6M, comps +2.1%, restaurant-level margin 26.3%, Adjusted EBITDA $42.1M; guidance at the time had SSS 4–6%, RLM 24.8–25.2%, Adjusted EBITDA $152–159M .
Q1 2025: Revenue $331.8M (16-week quarter), comps +10.8% (traffic +7.5%), restaurant-level margin 25.1%, Adjusted EBITDA $44.9M; guidance initially SSS 6–8% and Adjusted EBITDA $152–159M .